UK growth forecast raised by British Chambers of Commerce | 英国商工会議所、英国の成長予測を上昇

Although its performance will remain among the G7 economies with the worst till 2020, the UK has had some improvements in its growth forecast according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).

There have been some changes to the previous GDP forecasts made by the BCC. The new forecasts see growth from 1.1% to 1.4% for 2018, 1.3% to 1.5% in 2019, and a 1.6% growth for the year 2020.

This improvement in the level of growth is a result of a change in the consumer spending for the years in concern.

It also states that the global growth will maintain the positive performance of UK's export.

With the prediction of a continued rise of imports, the GDP growth of the UK will not be impacted to a great extent by the net trade. There is also no indication that the net trade position of the UK will experience any effect of a sterling boost.

All through the period which this forecast covers, the GDP growth of the UK has been stated to fall at a value which is lower than the historical average.

Skills shortages

Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, Dr. Adam Marshall commented that there should be better results from the UK economy as an impact of the continued global growth. Despite this fact, he also mentioned that there had been positive output from individual businesses.  

He also stated that in recent months, the UK had experienced a more favorable environment as export demands have risen thanks to the strong global conditions but there are uncertainties about future growth in a situation where major trading partners begin to have a lower performance.

Other issues that have become bothersome include shortage of labor and lack of sustained skills. Getting the good recruits and also making them stay seems like a difficult task.

The issue of Brexit seems to be the major concern of the government at the moment which has led to a neglect of the basic problems in the UK. This absence of a deliberate effort poses a serious threat as one of the limiting factors to the growth of the UK.

Over the period which the forecast covers, the BBC hints on a slight improvement in productivity is also expected but economic problems like low infrastructural investments and a shortage of skill will hinder this increase.

According to the body, the maximum inflation level has been attained, and as the effect of the post-EU referendum weakens, the inflation rate is expected to begin to drop.

There is also a prediction that in the second quarter of 2018, the official interest rates of the UK will grow to 0.75% while the first quarter of 2019 will be the next time another increase will occur.

In contrast to the forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the amount that will be borrowed by the UK public sector during the next three year period according to the BBC will be £13.4bn more than that initially released.

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英国商会上调英国经济增长预测

英国商会已经提高了对英国经济增长的预测，但警告说，直到2020年前，英国将成为表现最差的G7经济体之一。

英国商会已将2018年的GDP预测从1.1％上调至1.4％，并将2019年从1.3％上调至1.5％。它对2020年的首次预测是1.6％的增长。

尽管预测有所增长，整个预测期期间的英国国内生产总值的增长仍将低于历史平均水平。

英国商会总干事Adam Marshall博士表示：“许多个体企业表现良好，根据我们的预测，鉴于全球经济持续强劲增长，英国经济整体表现应该好于预期。抛开政治不确定性因素，制约英国经济增长的最大因素是缺乏协调一致的行动，因为英国政府被脱欧所分心。”

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  英国商工会議所、英国の成長予測を上昇

 英国商工会議所（BCC）は、英国の成長予測を引き上げたが、2020年までに最悪のG7諸国になると警告。BCCは、2018年のGDP予測を1.1％から1.4％に、2019年のそれを1.3％から1.5％に引き上げました。2020年の最初の予測は1.6％の成長に。この伸びは、消費者支出が予想を若干上回ることに支えられています。また、英国の輸出実績は、世界的な成長を背景に、堅調に推移するものと見込まれています。

 しかし、輸入も拡大し続けるとみられるものの、英国のGDP成長率に対する純貿易の寄与は短期間に限定され、特に英国全体の純貿易ポジションの進歩の証拠はほとんどありません。また、アップグレードにもかかわらず、英国のGDP成長率は、予測期間を通じて過去の平均を大幅に下回る水準にとどまる模様です。BCCは、生産性が予想を上回ってわずかに改善することが予想されているものの「英国のインフラにおけるスキル不足や慢性的な不十分な投資を含む、経済の根深い問題により妨げられている」と指摘しています。

 EUのインフレ率はピークを迎え、短期的にはゆっくりとしたペースで緩和を開始するとの見通しを示しました。また、英国の公式金利の0.75％への次回の上昇は、2018年の第2四半期に発生し、2019年の第1四半期にはさらに上昇すると予測されています。BCCはまた、英国の公共部門の借入は、今後3年間で、先週の財務省予算声明の予測よりも134億ポンド高くなると予想しています。